Local Market Conditions on 8-13-2019 posted on 8-13-2019
Our local real estate market continues to be a Seller's market especially in the lower price ranges. Buyers from out of town continue to move into the area. Builders are continue to build, but are doing almost all pre-sales on new construction. This is keeping the inventory down and the prices up. Home prices are still going up, but only about half as much (6-7% a year) as the have been the last couple of years. Inflation remains low and interest rates are very low right now. A 30 year fixed conventional is under 4% and the Fed is talking like they are going to lower the rates another 1/4% before the end of the year. With interest rates being at historically low rates, it continues to be a good time to buy. The market looks good heading into next year.
Next year it looks like home prices in our area will level off to about 4-5% appreciation in the first 5 months of the year. After that with a Presidential election coming, up it will depend on how things are shaping up. Who gets elected, what happens with energy prices, the trade conflict issues, inflation and interest rates. There is uncertainty in the horizon for next year.
These opinions reflect the feeling of Mike McNamara only, not his company or any other individual. Any unforeseen changes in the national or world economy can affect the markets either up or down.
If you have any real estate questions feel free to contact Mike at 208-660-6320.
Local Market Conditions and Forecast for 2019 posted on 2-20-2019
The local real estate market seemed to peak locally last summer around June or July. Don't take this wrong, it is still a strong Sellers market here, but not quite as strong as it has been. Home prices in the Seattle area and in parts of California are coming down. These markets are were most of are local Buyers are coming from and their markets do affect our market. With prices coming down, they will not be able to sell their homes quite as quickly and for not as much money.
With inflation under control the Fed has decided to leave rates alone. They do not want to slow the markets down and they want to keep the economy going. We have been on a 10 year run now, and this run can not last forever before we see a recession. It will be interesting to see how far these Trump tariffs go and how much they will affect the inflation rate, the interest rates and the economy. The more severe the tariffs, the more they will affect the economy and could cause inflation and interest rates to go up. My guess is that Trump will not carry them to an extreme. Look for 2019 to be a good year for the economy with local home prices slowing in their appreciate, the real estate market to slow modestly but still be strong and interest rates to remain stable or later on in the year to go up modestly.
In 2020, I see more instability and uncertainty than this year. A presidential election in the fall of 2020, the stock market becoming more unstable and more pressure on interest rates to go up modestly. There is a chance that this could lead the start of a recession. We will have to see who is elected president and who controls the congress. It also depends on the effect of tariffs on businesses, the interest rates, other factors and how these effect the economy. It is too early to tell for sure.
These opinions reflect the feeling of Mike McNamara only, not his company or any other individual. Any unforeseen changes in the national or world economy can affect the markets either up or down. You should consult your accountant and financial ad visor before making any financial moves.
We look forward to a good local robust economy in 2019. Wishing all of you the best in 2019!
Please call or e-mail me if you have any real estate questions
Mike's Crystal Ball Predictions for 2018
Local Market Conditions and Forecast for 2018 posted on 1-17-2018
Well we are already well into 2018. With it will bring new tax rules. How will these affect our local real estate market in 2018.
The allowable deductible mortgage interest on loans homeowners pay on primary and secondary homes, will be lowered from it’s current 1 million debt maximum to $750,000 starting in 2018. This will affect homeowners who have mortgage debt greater than $750,000. This will slow high priced home sales down some.
With the business tax rate going down from 35% to 21%, this will have a major effect on the economy. Expect employment to increase, wages to increase, unemployment to decrease all modestly. Expect inflation to increase.
Buyers are still moving into the area. Most are coming from strong real estate markets in California and the Seattle area. Expect continued low inventory of homes for sale in our local market. Prices to increase around 6 to 8%. Expect home purchases with a Buyer loan debt over $750,000 to slow modestly. Expect a modest increase in interest rates to around 4.75% on a 30 year fixed. Expect the stock market to be affected negatively if the interest rates go up to high. I expect any negative effective to be minor. We have good fundamentals in place for a good economy.
These opinions reflect the feeling of Mike McNamara only, not his companies or any other individual. Any unforeseen changes in the national or world economy can affect the markets either up or down. You should consult your accountant and financial adviser before making any financial moves.
We look forward to a good local robust economy in 2018. Wishing all of you the best in 2018!
Please call or e-mail me if you have any real estate questions.
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July 31, 2017
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